The Core Mathematics of the PiS Conflict: Factions Clash Amid Shrinking Parliamentary Seats

Political analyst Dr. Maciej Onasz attributes the deepening crisis within PiS to shrinking parliamentary seats and fierce internal competition, complicating the party’s future strategy.

The Mathematical Reality of the Crisis

If we want to find the true, original reason for this crisis, it is mathematics, says political scientist Dr. Maciej Onasz from the University of Lodz in an interview with Gazeta.pl. The expert notes that about 40 MPs belong to Mateusz Morawiecki’s circle within the Rozwój Plus association, while current polls indicate the PiS parliamentary club could shrink by 50 to 60 mandates in the next elections.

Someone will have to lose. Every internal faction and individual MP naturally thinks first about extending their own parliamentary survival. With fewer seats available in the Sejm, internal party competition and rivalry automatically increase, Onasz stresses.

Missed Opportunities and Undercurrent Faction Fights

According to the political scientist, moods within PiS were significantly better a year ago, largely thanks to Karol Nawrocki’s victory in the presidential election. That opportunity for recovery was not utilized, and by roughly September 2025, PiS poll numbers collapsed, negatively impacting the interests of individual groups.

Onasz views Mateusz Morawiecki’s association not as a breakaway project, but as an internal competition tool designed to demonstrate strength and reclaim access to resources and future Sejm seats. In recent weeks, this backroom factional fight has intensified at an exceptionally poor moment, overshadowing previous reports regarding health service problems and the Szpital Południowy affair.

Political Prospects and Potential Alliances

A potential party led by Mateusz Morawiecki could seek a position closer to the political center, acting somewhat like PSL or Trzecia Droga. However, building an image of a new political quality would be difficult since these are familiar politicians rather than newcomers.

Morawiecki’s grouping might draw voters leaning toward Confederation and the center, and while PiS and Morawiecki’s party combined might secure higher overall social support than PiS alone, the electoral system favoring larger parties means this might not translate into a higher seat count.

Jarosław Kaczyński’s Position and the Ultimatum

Even stopping Morawiecki’s supporters would not stabilize PiS, as core structural problems and a shortage of electoral seats would persist. Prolonged conflict benefits Confederation and the ruling camp, making a definitive resolution either to the right or left necessary for both sides.

Jarosław Kaczyński appears politically weaker than in previous years, facing resource loss and internal rivalry. Meanwhile, a PiS leadership ultimatum required MPs associated with Morawiecki to renounce association memberships by Thursday midnight, with none of the roughly 40 MPs signing the loyalty declarations, while euro MP Daniel Obajtek did sign.

Compromise Rejections and Internal Factions

Meetings between Jarosław Kaczyński and Mateusz Morawiecki failed to yield a breakthrough after compromise proposals, including freezing the Rozwój Plus association until the parliamentary elections, were rejected. Morawiecki offered declarations that the association would not conduct party activities or build competitive structures, while maintaining plans for a July panel event in Warsaw.

The background features a renewed conflict between Morawiecki’s supporters, known as the scouts, and the faction grouped around Przemysław Czarnek, Jacek Sasin, and others known as the butter-makers, alongside PC veterans and former Sovereign Poland politicians. The scouts favor expanding the electorate and emphasizing economic issues, whereas the butter-makers criticize Morawiecki’s governance and target conservative voters to counter Confederation.