Latest Party Poll: KO Leads as the Race Tightens

A new IBRiS poll for Polsat News shows Civic Coalition leading the Polish political scene while PiS drops sharply and Mateusz Morawiecki’s new grouping clears the electoral threshold.

New IBRiS Poll Findings

The latest party poll brings a clear reshuffle to the Polish political scene. Civic Coalition maintains first place, the advantage of Law and Justice over Confederation has melted to 2.5 percentage points, and Mateusz Morawiecki’s formation, surveyed for the first time, exceeds the electoral threshold.

If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, Civic Coalition would win. In the latest IBRiS poll conducted for Polsat News, the grouping received 27.5 percent support. This is a result 0.5 percentage points lower than in the survey from the end of June, when 28 percent of respondents indicated KO.

Sharp Decline for Law and Justice

A much larger change concerns Law and Justice. Jarosław Kaczyński’s party took second place with support at 16.9 percent. At the end of June, readiness to vote for PiS was declared by 24.1 percent of respondents. This means a drop of 7.2 percentage points in just over a month. However, it cannot be prejudged that the entire loss of support stems from voters flowing to Mateusz Morawiecki’s environment.

The poll shows a change in declarations but does not automatically allow each of them to be attributed to a single source.

Confederation Narrows the Gap

Third place went to Confederation with a result of 14.4 percent. In the previous study, it had 13.4 percent, thus improving its result by 1 percentage point. The difference separating it from PiS is currently only 2.5 percentage points. This is one of the most important results of the study, as it indicates a clear decrease in distance between the two formations competing for part of the right-wing electorate.

In fourth place was Confederation of the Polish Crown. Grzegorz Braun’s grouping would be voted for by 9.4 percent of respondents, compared to 9 percent in the previous poll. This means an increase of 0.4 percentage points.

The results show the progressive fragmentation of the right side of the political scene. Law and Justice remains the strongest grouping in this segment, but its advantage over competitors is decidedly smaller than just a few weeks earlier.

Rozwój Plus Above the Electoral Threshold

The fifth position was taken by Rozwój Plus, the political environment focused around Mateusz Morawiecki. Support for this formation was declared by 7.8 percent of study participants. In the previous poll, it was not included, so its result cannot be compared directly with the June result.

Rozwój Plus functions as an association and parliamentary club formed after the conflict and split within Law and Justice. The poll result concerns the scenario of this environment running independently in elections as a separate formation. Therefore, it does not mean that such lists have already been formally registered or that a final decision has been made regarding the method of running in the 2027 parliamentary elections.

The result of 7.8 percent allows stating that in the studied variant, Rozwój Plus would exceed the 5 percent threshold provided for a political party committee. In the case of a coalition electoral committee, the threshold is 8 percent. However, simply exceeding the threshold does not allow determining the number of mandates. For such a calculation, data on the distribution of support in individual districts and complete assumptions regarding electoral lists would be needed, among other things.

Left Enters Parliament While Three Groupings Fall Short

The Left obtained 7.6 percent support and would be the last of the formations exceeding the statutory electoral threshold. Compared to the end of June, it lost 0.6 percentage points.

Outside the Sejm would be three groupings. Polish People’s Party obtained 4 percent, Razem Party 2.3 percent, and Poland 2050 a mere 1.4 percent. Compared to the earlier study, PSL lost 0.1 percentage points, Razem Party 0.8 percentage points, while Poland 2050 gained 0.6 percentage points.

The answer “I don’t know” or “hard to say” was chosen by 8.8 percent of respondents. Declared turnout was 64.4 percent. The remaining 35.6 percent of respondents stated they would not take part in the elections.

Rozwój Plus Leads Second-Choice Preferences

A separate part of the study concerned the grouping respondents would vote for if their first-choice party did not run. The most indications were gathered by Rozwój Plus at 17.5 percent. Subsequent places were occupied by the Left with a result of 16.5 percent and Confederation with support amounting to 16.2 percent.

Civic Coalition as an alternative was indicated by 8.1 percent of respondents, Confederation of the Polish Crown by 7.6 percent, PiS by 6.2 percent, and PSL by 5.4 percent. Poland 2050 received 2.8 percent, while Razem Party received 1.6 percent. Another grouping would be voted for by 1.3 percent of respondents, and 16.8 percent could not indicate a second choice.

The potential party of Mateusz Morawiecki was indicated in this part of the study by 40.6 percent of people who voted for PiS in the 2023 parliamentary elections. Such an answer was also chosen by 21.1 percent of then-Confederation voters and 12 percent of Third Way voters.

Respondents also answered a direct question about the possibility of supporting Rozwój Plus. The answer “definitely yes” was chosen by 5.6 percent of respondents, and “rather yes” by 15.4 percent. The total group of people at least permitting casting a vote for Mateusz Morawiecki’s formation was thus 21 percent.

The opposite stance was taken by 64.7 percent of respondents. In this group, 49.3 percent answered “definitely not,” while 15.4 percent answered “rather not.” Opinions on this matter were not held by 14.3 percent of study participants.

The IBRiS poll for Polsat News was conducted from July 29 to August 2, 2026, using the method of telephone, standardized, computer-assisted questionnaire interviews. The study was carried out on a nationwide sample of 1,000 respondents.