US Intelligence Shift: Putin Could Test NATO as Early as This Autumn, Warns The Wall Street Journal

A new US intelligence assessment warns that a cornered Vladimir Putin may test NATO through cyberattacks, covert incursions, or limited invasions between this autumn and 2029 to fracture the alliance.

Shift in Intelligence Assessments

According to findings by “The Wall Street Journal,” previous US analyses assumed Vladimir Putin would not attack a NATO state while the war in Ukraine continued. That assessment changed at the beginning of this year; officials cited by the newspaper state that the Russian leader is increasingly cornered on the front lines and under mounting domestic pressure to achieve any victory.

Ukrainian drones are inflicting growing losses on both Russia’s army and oil sector, while advances by Putin’s troops on the front line are increasingly marginal and met with heavy casualties.

Scenarios and Timelines

New intelligence assessments outline scenarios ranging from cyberattacks and the deployment of unmarked armed groups to seize territory, to a limited land invasion on NATO’s eastern flank. US officials estimate such actions could occur between this autumn and 2029. A full-scale land invasion scenario remains the least likely because it would trigger NATO’s Article 5, but the risk is expected to grow over time with the objective of breaking the alliance, according to US officials.

The article’s authors indicate that American and European leaders increasingly perceive signs of Russian “probing” actions designed to test NATO’s resolve, citing among other things Russian cruise missiles that landed in Polish territory and drones that entered Romanian airspace.

British Intelligence Warnings

Recently, British intelligence sources cited by the “Mail on Sunday” also warned that Putin is preparing a direct showdown with NATO. As described in Gazeta.pl, this assessment is compounded by several factors: Moscow’s belief that Donald Trump’s attention is currently consumed by the crisis surrounding Iran, and signals of divisions within the Ukrainian political leadership.

Munitions Shortages

The “WSJ” also points out that the US has heavily depleted its reserves of key ammunition—including PrSM and ATACMS long-range missiles as well as Stinger portable systems—due to transfers to Ukraine and the war with Iran. Shortages also affect air defense systems: Patriot, SM-3, THAAD, and Thaad radars.

Officially, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell dismissed reports of ammunition shortages as untrue, while White House Press Secretary Anna Kelly assured that the US military has reserves “more than sufficient” to fulfill the strategic goals of the Trump administration.

Citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the authors state that the conflict with Iran consumed between 1,060 and 1,430 Patriot missiles, leaving approximately 870 units in American arsenals. CSIS co-author Mark Cancian assesses that while the United States could sustain the conflict with Iran for a longer period, the Pentagon’s real worry is how the depletion of these stockpiles impacts deterrence capabilities in the Pacific against China.