Morawiecki’s Potential Split Could Weaken PiS While Tusk Fails to Form a Government, Poll Shows
A recent United Surveys poll reveals that if Mateusz Morawiecki’s party runs independently from PiS, it could weaken the right-wing party, though the ruling coalition still lacks the majority...
A recent United Surveys poll reveals that if Mateusz Morawiecki’s party runs independently from PiS, it could weaken the right-wing party, though the ruling coalition still lacks the majority to govern alone.
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Poll Methodology and Joint List Scenario
Pracownia United Surveys by IBRiS conducted a poll for Wirtualna Polska between August 7 and 9 using combined CAWI and CATI methods on a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles. In the first scenario, respondents were asked which grouping they would vote for if politicians associated with Mateusz Morawiecki and his association ran on a joint list with Law and Justice (PiS).
The largest number of respondents (28.7 percent) indicated Civic Coalition (KO). PiS came in second with the support of 21.4 percent of those surveyed, followed by Confederation (12.4 percent), Confederation of the Polish Crown (8.8 percent), and the Left (7.1 percent).
Other groupings, including the Polish People’s Party (4.6 percent), Partia Razem (4.1 percent), and Poland 2050 (1.6 percent), fell below the electoral threshold. Among respondents, 0.2 percent declared a vote for another party, and 11.2 percent did not know or could not say who they would vote for.
Independent Run by Morawiecki’s Party
The second variant assumed an independent run by Morawiecki’s Rozw贸j Plus party. KO won this scenario as well with 28.7 percent, but PiS recorded a drop of 3.7 percentage points compared to the joint run, securing 17.8 percent support.
They were followed by Confederation (10.6 percent), Confederation of the Polish Crown (9.6 percent), the Left (7.2 percent), and Rozw贸j Plus (6.8 percent). Meanwhile, the PSL (4.8 percent), Partia Razem (3.5 percent), and Poland 2050 (0.6 percent) would not enter the Sejm.
Seat Projections Across Scenarios
If Rozw贸j Plus ran alongside PiS, KO would win 186 seats, PiS 133, Confederation 69, Confederation of the Polish Crown 43, and the Left 29. KO and the Left together would hold 215 seats, failing to secure the required majority to form a government, while a PiS and Confederation coalition would hold a majority with 245 seats based on simulations by Prof. Jaros艂aw Flis’s calculator.
If Rozw贸j Plus ran separately, KO would win 187 seats, PiS 108, Confederation 56, Confederation of the Polish Crown 49, the Left 31, and Rozw贸j Plus 29. PiS, Confederation, and Rozw贸j Plus could jointly win 242 seats, while KO and the Left would have 218 seats, still lacking a Sejm majority.
Discussions on a United Right-Wing List
According to RMF FM, behind-the-scenes reports suggested the right-wing camp could run in parliamentary elections from a single, joint list fronted by President Karol Nawrocki. PiS MP Andrzej 艢liwka stated openness to forming such a list, while Micha艂 Niezna艅ski of Confederation announced his party intends to run independently.
Currently, talks on a potential Senate pact are reportedly underway between PiS and Confederation, though 艢liwka noted no cooperation is being discussed with Grzegorz Braun himself, despite the party allowing cooperation with his associates.
PiS and Bezpartyjni Samorz膮dowcy Agreement
Jaros艂aw Kaczy艅ski and Bezpartyjni Samorz膮dowcy leader Marek Woch concluded an agreement on July 15, with the PiS leader stating they will work toward a joint appearance of right-wing formations in the Senate. The form of this cooperation is not yet finalized, though Kaczy艅ski suggested direct alliance or a social committee.
