Fuel Price Hike Looms as VAT Relief Nears Expiration

Drivers are enjoying a temporary dip in fuel costs, but a potential end to government subsidies and the return of 23% VAT could trigger a sharp price increase starting July 1.

Uncertainty Ahead for Summer Fuel Prices

Fuel prices are currently lower than they were a year ago, but experts from the Reflex agency warn that this stability may end on July 1. The potential conclusion of the “Lower Fuel Prices” program and the restoration of a 23% VAT rate could see pump prices jump by as much as 60 groszy per liter.

Analysts Urszula Cieślak and Rafał Zywert note that market volatility remains a factor. While increased oil supply from the Middle East has driven prices down, the combination of ending government programs and the upcoming hurricane season may create supply-demand imbalances, further pressuring prices during the second half of summer.

Current Market Trends and Price Projections

Recent data shows a downward trend in fuel costs compared to the previous week, with diesel recording the most significant drop of 24 groszy per liter. As of Friday, average prices stood at 5.91 PLN for 95-octane gasoline, 6.62 PLN for 98-octane, 6.05 PLN for diesel, and 3.38 PLN for autogas.

If the 23% VAT rate is reinstated, experts predict gasoline and diesel prices will inevitably rise by 40 to 60 groszy per liter. Stations along highways and expressways are expected to be hit hardest, with prices there potentially exceeding 7 PLN per liter. Forecasted post-tax prices could reach 6.50 PLN for 95-octane gasoline and 6.70 PLN for diesel.