New CBOS Poll Reveals Shifts in Polish Voter Preferences

A recent CBOS survey shows the Civic Coalition leading national voter support at 25.1 percent as of early July, followed by Law and Justice, while voter turnout remains high but slightly lower.

Parties in the Lead

According to the CBOS poll conducted at the beginning of July, the Civic Coalition (KO) would win the election with 25.1 percent of the vote. Law and Justice (PiS) would secure 19.1 percent, while the Confederation (WiN) stands at 15.2 percent.

The Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP) holds 8.2 percent, and the New Left has reached 5.3 percent. All other political entities would fail to meet the threshold for parliamentary representation.

Voter Participation and Trends

The survey indicates that 74.8 percent of respondents intend to participate in elections, a figure noted by the polling agency as slightly lower compared to June results. Furthermore, 15.7 percent of voters remain undecided, marking an increase of 4.9 percentage points since April.

Compared to previous months, the Civic Coalition saw a decrease of 3.4 percentage points, while PiS dropped by 3 points. Conversely, the Confederation (WiN) gained 2.4 percentage points, and the New Left increased by 1.4 points.

Status of Remaining Parties

Other political groups falling below the electoral threshold include the Razem party at 4.1 percent, the Polish People’s Party (PSL) at 3.6 percent, and Poland 2050 at 1.1 percent. The newly included Centrum Polska group received 0.1 percent.

The study was conducted between July 6 and 8, using a mix of telephone (CATI) and online (CAWI) interviews among 1,001 adult Poles. An electoral weight was applied to the findings.