New Election Poll: Confederation Gains Ground Amid Ukraine Tensions

An IBRiS survey conducted for Rzeczpospolita reveals the Civic Coalition leads with 29.1% support, while rising tensions over Ukraine are fueling a notable increase in polling numbers for the Confederation parties.

Polling Trends and Party Shifts

The IBRiS poll, conducted July 2-3 among 1,073 respondents, places the Civic Coalition (KO) at 29.1%, down from 30.9% in late May. Law and Justice (PiS) follows with 23.2%, compared to 25.4% in the previous month.

Confederation has reached 13.3%, while Confederation of the Polish Crown rose to 11%. The Left remains steady at 8.4%. Other parties, including the Polish People’s Party (3.9%), Razem (2.3%), and Poland 2050 (1%), currently fall below the electoral threshold.

Expert Analysis of Political Climate

Professor Sławomir Sowiński from Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University notes that while the Southern Hospital scandal has not significantly dented KO’s support, rising diplomatic tensions with Ukraine have positively impacted the Confederation’s standing.

Sociologist Prof. Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University observed that both KO and PiS are losing support within the margin of error, indicating that neither party possesses enough core support to govern alone.

Coalition Realities and Parliamentary Math

If elections were held today, projections suggest 168 seats for KO, 136 for PiS, 72 for Confederation, 54 for Confederation of the Polish Crown, and 30 for the Left. Currently, neither the governing bloc nor the opposition can secure a majority of 231 seats.

Confederation’s Stance on Alliances

Krzysztof Bosak, a leader of the Confederation, stated that his party will compete independently in the upcoming parliamentary elections, rejecting a joint victory with PiS. However, he did not rule out a potential Senate pact with PiS to prevent a center-left majority.