New Poll Shows Shifting Support as Government Coalition Stagnates

A mid-June CBOS survey reveals that while 76.6 percent of Poles intend to vote, support for government coalition parties is declining or flatlining, contrasting with gains for the opposition.

Voter Intentions in June

If parliamentary elections were held in the first half of June, 76.6 percent of surveyed Poles would cast their ballots, matching the turnout recorded in May. According to the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS), the data highlights a trend where government coalition parties are seeing their ratings stagnate or worsen, while opposition groups are generally gaining ground.

Current Party Standings

The Civic Coalition remains in the lead with 28.5 percent support, though this marks a 2.3 percentage point decrease since May. Law and Justice follows with 22.1 percent support, reflecting a 2.5 percentage point increase. The Confederation holds 12.8 percent, a drop of 2.5 percentage points, while the Confederation of the Polish Crown secures 9.4 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points.

Parties Below the Electoral Threshold

Several parties currently fall below the required electoral threshold: Partia Razem with 4 percent support, Nowa Lewica with 3.9 percent, the Polish People’s Party at 1.5 percent, and Polska 2050 at 1.3 percent. Additionally, 0.2 percent of respondents chose “another party,” 14.5 percent were undecided, and 1.8 percent refused to answer.

Methodology and Data

The survey was conducted between June 8 and June 10, using a sample of 1,000 adult Polish residents. Data collection utilized a mix of computer-assisted telephone interviews and online surveys, with electoral weights applied to represent turnout and party preferences accurately.