Poll: Morawiecki Siphons PiS Voters But Barely Clears Electoral Threshold
A new OGB poll shows Civic Coalition leading with 33.53 percent while Mateusz Morawiecki’s Rozw贸j Plus barely enters the Sejm, creating a massive problem for Law and Justice. Poll Results and...
A new OGB poll shows Civic Coalition leading with 33.53 percent while Mateusz Morawiecki’s Rozw贸j Plus barely enters the Sejm, creating a massive problem for Law and Justice.
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Poll Results and Seat Distribution
In the latest OGB poll, 33.53 percent of voters declared their willingness to vote for the Civic Coalition (KO). Law and Justice (PiS) came in second with 22.34 percent, while Confederation closed the podium with 15.82 percent.
Grzegorz Braun’s Confederation of the Crown of Poland (10.51 percent), New Left (5.99 percent), and Mateusz Morawiecki’s grouping Rozw贸j Plus (5.49 percent) would also introduce deputies to the Sejm.
According to OGB calculations, such results would translate into 185 seats in the Sejm for KO, 126 for PiS, 79 for Confederation, 49 for the Confederation of the Crown of Poland, 13 for New Left, and 8 for the Rozw贸j Plus formation.
Current Sejm Representation
Currently, the KO Sejm club has 156 deputies, the PiS club 147, Mateusz Morawiecki’s Rozw贸j Plus club 40, the PSL club 32, the Left club 21, the Confederation club 16, the Center club (formed after the breakup of Poland 2050) 15, and Poland 2050 15. There are also parliamentary groups: Direct Democracy (4 deputies), Razem (4), Confederation of the Crown of Poland (3), with seven non-attached deputies.
Parties Below the Electoral Threshold
According to OGB, the electoral threshold would not be crossed by the Razem Party (3.64 percent), the Polish People’s Party (PSL) (1.74 percent), and Poland 2050 (0.94 percent). The survey was conducted using the CATI method (telephone poll) between August 5-12 on a representative sample of 1,000 people.
Holiday Impact on Moods
Compared to the previous OGB survey conducted in June, KO lost about 5.5 percentage points, and PiS lost 4.7 percentage points. Meanwhile, Confederation gained 4.1 percentage points, the Confederation of the Crown of Poland 1.2 percentage points, and New Left 0.8 percentage points. Mateusz Morawiecki’s grouping was not noted at the time.
OGB head 艁ukasz Paw艂owski noted during a YouTube broadcast that the drop in KO’s ratings may be linked, among other things, to the scandal at the Po艂udniowy Hospital. At the same time, he pointed out that “holidays are a bad time to study moods,” because “some voters are on vacation and this translates a bit into the ratings of liberal governments.”
2023 Parliamentary Election Context
In the last parliamentary elections in 2023, 35.38 percent of Poles voted for PiS, and 30.7 percent for KO. Third Way (a coalition of Poland 2050 and PSL) was supported by 14.4 percent of voters. The Left (8.61 percent) and Confederation (7.16 percent) also introduced their representatives to the Sejm. Law and Justice thus won 194 mandates in the Sejm, KO 157, Third Way 65, the Left 26, and Confederation 18.
A Huge Problem for PiS
40.7 percent of right-wing voters want to vote for Law and Justice today. This is the lowest indication in the history of our ratings. Why? Mateusz Morawiecki’s party has appeared. 10 percent of those voters who declare right-wing views would like to vote for his grouping, explained OGB head 艁ukasz Paw艂owski.
At the same time, 24.1 percent of right-wing voters currently support Confederation, and 19.1 percent support the Confederation of the Crown of Poland.
Back in April of last year, support for Jaros艂aw Kaczy艅ski’s party was declared by 54.5 percent of voters who are “on the right.” PiS voters are actually moving one-to-one to Morawiecki’s party. This means a huge problem for Law and Justice, Paw艂owski noted.
