Poll Shows Konfederacja and Braun Gaining as PiS Hits Multi-Year Low

A new Opinia24 survey reveals Koalicja Obyvatelska remains in the lead despite a slight drop, while Law and Justice records its lowest support in years alongside surging right-wing rivals.

Poll Findings and Party Standings

In a poll conducted between August 3 and 5 by the Opinia24 research agency, Koalicja Obyvatelska remains the leader with 30.3 percent of the surveyed support, marking a decrease of 1 percentage point. Right behind it is Law and Justice with 17.2 percent, down 5.6 points, while Konfederacja received 15.3 percent, up 1.9 points.

The Sejm would also include Konfederacja Korony Polskiej with 9 percent, The Left with 7 percent, and Mateusz Morawiecki’s Rozwój Plus with 5.3 percent. Razem, Poland 2050, and PSL fell below the electoral threshold.

The representative sample consisted of 1,001 adult Poles. The study was conducted using a mixed-mode technique combining computer-assisted telephone interviews and online surveys.

Shifts on the Political Right

Although KO leads, its advantage is shrinking, and its coalition partners are also losing support. The authors of the study note that consequently, the ruling coalition cannot count on a majority in potential elections.

The greatest momentum is visible on the right side of the political scene, where turmoil within Law and Justice clearly strengthens both Konfederacji factions, whose combined support today reaches levels close to what PiS enjoyed as recently as June. Law and Justice itself records its lowest percentage of potential voters in years.

Urszula Krassowska, head of the Opinia24 agency, comments that the battle for leadership on the right is only just beginning, a situation not eased by the activity of President Karol Nawrocki, whose actions appear to signal an ambition to play a significant role in leading the right wing.

Jaroszaw Kaczynski Rallying the Base

On Thursday, August 6, a PiS convention took place where Jaroslaw Kaczynski delivered a speech, referencing among other things the anniversary of Karol Nawrocki’s presidency.

The PiS leader stated that a year ago all kinds of obstacles were overcome and President Nawrocki was sworn in as president of the Republic of Poland to the end. According to Kaczynski, it was a victorious day, but for that victory to be complete, other moments of triumph for the broader patriotic formation are also needed.

Kaczynski pointed out that the government currently holds the most power and Poland’s sovereignty and independence are threatened, highlighting the European Union dominated by Germany and to a lesser extent France.

Kaczynski assessed that the main flaw of the current government is that it implements a foreign, primarily German agenda. He added that a potential victory for right-wing forces in France, Poland, and elsewhere would open a window of opportunity for EU reform, provided Polish patriots govern the country.