Zelenskyy, Zaluzhnyi or Fedorov? New Poll Reveals Clear Favorites in Ukraine

A recent survey by the Socis Center reveals shifting voter preferences in Ukraine, showing Valerii Zaluzhnyi leading Volodymyr Zelenskyy in potential runoff matchups while parliamentary and presidential elections remain postponed due to martial law.

First-Round Preferences and Candidates

In the first round of the presidential election, Volodymyr Zelenskyy would hold a slight lead over Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, garnering 22.3 and 21.4 percent of the support respectively. Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov would place third with 13.1 percent of the votes among decided respondents who declare they will vote in the elections.

Poll in Ukraine and Runoff Scenarios

Zaluzhnyi would emerge as the leader of the presidential race. In a second round, Zaluzhnyi would secure 66.2 percent of the votes against 33.8 percent for Zelenskyy. Kyrylo Budanow, former head of the HUR military intelligence and currently head of the Presidential Office, would receive 60.3 percent of the support in a runoff, while Zelenskyy would get 39.7 percent. Fedorov would also defeat Zelenskyy in this scenario with 63.8 to 36.2 percent.

Polling Methodology and Scope

These are the results of a poll conducted at the turn of July and August by the Ukrainian Center for Sociological Research, Socis. The Socis agency conducted its survey among a group of 2,000 respondents in areas controlled by the authorities in Kyiv, excluding residents of occupied Crimea, the Russian-controlled parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, and areas affected by active combat.

Public Opinion on Timing of Elections

The study also showed, among other things, that according to 60 percent of respondents, elections should be held immediately after the announcement of a temporary halt to military operations and the end of martial law. According to more than 25 percent of those surveyed, in such a situation, it would be necessary to wait some time before holding elections.

Presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine have been postponed due to the ongoing war. According to constitutional norms, parliamentary elections in Ukraine should have been held in 2023, and presidential elections in 2024. However, due to the ongoing war and the martial law in effect continuously since February 2022, their organization is not possible for both legal and organizational reasons.

Legal and Practical Hurdles to Voting

Legally, according to the Ukrainian constitution, elections can take place no earlier than 90 days after the end of martial law. Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that elections will be held only after the end of the war and the lifting of martial law, arguing that it is impossible to organize voting with millions of displaced persons, soldiers at the front, and a lack of access to part of the territory.