U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28; escalating conflict threatens global energy prices and impacts Poland, Russia, and Ukraine.
U.S. and Israel Launch Aggression Against Iran
On Saturday, February 28, the United States and Israel launched an aggression against Iran. Shortly after, it was reported that Ayatollah Khamenei and numerous Iranian leaders were killed. On the same day, news spread that Israelis and Americans bombed a girls’ school, killing over 100 children. Iran responded by launching missiles and drone swarms against Israel, U.S. military bases in the region, and energy infrastructure in U.S. allied nations like Qatar and Saudi Arabia. As of now, neither side appears to be seeking de-escalation.
Unclear U.S. Objectives
Israel’s goal in this invasion is clear: to weaken, destabilize, or fragment Iran into smaller states. Benjamin Netanyahu has long dreamed of attacking Iran to eliminate the region’s last real military competitor. However, the U.S. lacks any clear objective in this aggression. Donald Trump and his department heads repeat slogans (denied by the International Atomic Energy Agency) that Iran sought to build an atomic bomb. It is unclear if Trump aims to overthrow the ayatollahs’ regime. After high-level meetings, American senators and congressmen state bluntly: this administration does not know what it wants to achieve in Iran.
During a press briefing, Marco Rubio belatedly bit his tongue and admitted the U.S. attacked Iran because Netanyahu wanted to. “The President [Trump] made a very wise decision: we knew an Israeli operation was coming, we knew it would lead to attacks on American forces, and we knew that without our preemptive action, we would suffer greater losses,” Rubio stated, as if the U.S. had no leverage over Israel (which it does). It appears Trump is the first American president to be persuaded into war by Israel.
Global Economic Consequences
This episode of “Co to będzie” focuses not only on military matters but also on the consequences of this war for us all, including in Poland. Iranians are destroying valuable and hard-to-replace American military equipment. Trump has stated that losses from Iranian attacks can be compensated by redirecting assets from U.S. bases in other regions to the Middle East. The U.S. failed to defend regional allies’ energy infrastructure from Iranian attacks—Qatar Energy, a gas giant, halted production. No ships are currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran, through which one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies are transported. The result? Energy prices have already risen sharply.
First, Russia will greatly benefit from this. Even if Iranians cannot now deliver Shahed drones (Russia can produce similar weapons itself), rising energy prices will cause more countries to buy cheap raw materials from Putin. This is crucial for the struggling Russian economy. Second, Europe cannot avoid inflation driven by energy price hikes. We recall how the 2022 invasion of Ukraine affected prices. With each day without Hormuz transit and Middle Eastern plant shutdowns, it will get worse. Trump and Netanyahu went to war with Iran—we will all pay for it.
Podcast Information
The podcast “Co to będzie” is available on YouTube every Thursday at 18:00, and on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and the Gazeta.pl homepage at 20:00. We also invite you to our solo spin-offs available on the same channels: “Co mi to da” by Miłosz Wiatrowski-Bujacz and “Co to ma znaczyć” by Marta Nowak. Premiere every other Monday at 18:00.
