Statistics Poland reports a 1.3% year-on-year rise in retail sales for April 2026, though experts highlight a sharp shift in e-commerce performance amidst emerging market challenges and shifting consumer sentiment.
Retail Performance Stalls
Statistics Poland (GUS) data for April 2026 shows a 1.3% increase in retail sales at constant prices compared to last year, though performance fell by 0.8% compared to March. The e-commerce sector faced notable volatility, with online sales value rising by only 0.5% year-on-year.
The market share of online sales declined to 8.6%, down from 8.8% the previous year and 9.6% at the end of March, signaling a cooling period for digital retail.
Consumer Optimism and Seasonal Drivers
Despite current fluctuations, experts remain optimistic about the coming months. Tomasz Gutkowski, Chief Commercial Officer at Univio, notes that consumer confidence is improving, with the current sentiment index rising to -11.3 points, reflecting a 3.2-point increase year-on-year.
Retailers expect a surge in activity driven by seasonal milestones, including May holidays, communion season, wedding periods, and school year-end preparations, which are expected to boost categories such as fashion and gastronomy.
Structural Challenges and Long-Term Outlook
The industry is grappling with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are driving up costs for energy, insurance, and freight. Experts emphasize that long-term success depends on infrastructure investments in logistics and data technology.
Market analysts maintain a positive outlook for the future, projecting the value of the Polish e-commerce sector to reach between 175 and 180 billion PLN in 2026, potentially growing to 190–200 billion PLN by 2028.
