A new survey reveals a three-percentage-point decline for the Civic Coalition while the far-right Konfederacja sees a notable surge, shifting the landscape of Polish parliamentary support as of late May.
Shifting Party Support
In a survey asking respondents which party they would support if parliamentary elections were held this coming Sunday, the Civic Coalition remained the leader with 32.98 percent. This figure represents a three-percentage-point decrease compared to the May poll. Law and Justice followed in second place with 26.6 percent, a marginal decline of 0.23 percentage points.
Konfederacja Liberty and Independence recorded the largest growth, reaching 13.29 percent, an increase of 1.55 percentage points. The Left party also saw gains, rising by 0.58 percentage points to reach 7.76 percent.
Growth for the Korona Polska Faction
Similar to the Mentzen-led faction, the Confederation of the Polish Crown improved its standing, securing 7.03 percent of the vote compared to 5.54 percent in the previous study, marking a 1.5-percentage-point rise.
Struggles Among Smaller Coalitions
The Razem party polled at 4.78 percent, while the PSL recorded 4.25 percent; both saw declines in support. Poland 2050 experienced a minimal uptick to 2.71 percent, while other groupings accounted for 0.54 percent of responses.
Methodology and Election Outlook
The study was conducted on May 28-29 with a sample of 1,057 Polish adults. With the next parliamentary elections scheduled for autumn 2027, two current coalition members—PSL and Poland 2050—face the risk of falling below the 5 percent electoral threshold, leaving the government to weigh the benefits of running as a unified block versus separate entities.
Strategic Dilemmas for Tusk
Commentator Janusz A. Majcherek notes that Prime Minister Donald Tusk faces a significant choice: a pre-election agreement and shared list with Włodzimierz Czarzasty, or a potential post-election arrangement involving Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak.
