Historian Jarosław Kuisz warns Donald Tusk’s potential 2027 election win could result in a loss of power due to weak coalition partners.
Tusk’s Vulnerable Position
Jarosław Kuisz argues the key question of the 2027 elections isn’t Tusk’s result, but the performance of his coalition allies.
He notes the Left may fail to cross the electoral threshold, the Polish People’s Party (PSL) is unstable, and Poland 2050 is effectively non-existent as an electoral force, potentially leading to a win without the ability to govern.
Initial Weakness After Presidential Loss
Kuisz asserts Donald Tusk was politically vulnerable after Rafał Trzaskowski’s defeat in the presidential election, which derailed planned judicial reforms and broader ambitions.
For months after the election, the Tusk government appeared on the brink of collapse, resembling a boxer struggling to stay on his feet.
Course Correction After Setback
The government recovered by shifting its strategy and delaying implementation of many initiatives that were contingent on Trzaskowski’s victory.
This change involved avoiding a prolonged period of waiting and risking a disastrous parliamentary election outcome.
Shifting Communication Strategy
A key change involved addressing new issues, exemplified by the cryptocurrency scandal, which didn’t fit the traditional political divide between supporters and opponents of Jarosław Kaczyński and Tusk.
Tusk successfully seized this issue, setting the debate’s tone and attracting voters who were previously undecided.
Kaczyński’s Misstep on Cryptocurrency
Kaczyński’s suggestion to ban cryptocurrencies appeared uninformed and disconnected from the concerns of voters interested in the topic.
His position inadvertently aligned with the government’s skepticism, but Tusk was quicker to capitalize on the issue, demonstrating a narrative advantage.
Polling and Government Stability
While over 30% support is significant, it’s a typical result for governments taking power after populist predecessors.
Compared to the UK’s Keir Starmer and Slovakia’s Zuzanna Čaputová, Tusk’s approval ratings are relatively high and stable, though this only tells part of the story.
The Coalition Challenge
The crucial question for 2027 isn’t Tusk’s individual support, but the combined strength of his coalition partners.
The 2023 election demonstrated that winning an election doesn’t guarantee power, echoing the experience of PiS.
Potential Scenarios and Risks
If the Left fails to gain parliamentary representation, the PSL remains on the edge of qualification, and Poland 2050 doesn’t revive, Tusk could win the election but be forced to cede power to PiS and the Confederation.
This scenario represents a “pyrrhic victory” for the Civic Coalition.
Historical Context and Democratic Functioning
The author draws a parallel to the May Coup, emphasizing that Polish democracy is functioning, with multiple possible outcomes determined by voters.
Coalition Viability and Future Governance
A united Left with around 10% support and KO at 33% could sustain the government, while a PiS-Confederation coalition could lead to a repeat of the 2005-2007 government.
PiS’s Desire for Power
The right-wing camp has grown accustomed to the benefits of power and is highly motivated to regain control, providing internal cohesion.
A coalition between PiS and the Confederation would be unstable.
Unlikely Alliances
A coalition between Tusk and the libertarian wing of the Confederation is considered unlikely due to deep-seated animosity towards Tusk.
The Government’s Core Message
The Tusk government aims to navigate Poland through turbulent global politics, focusing on maintaining the country’s course towards prosperity and security.
The unpredictable stance of Donald Trump regarding NATO and security commitments has heightened the need for Poland to build alliances, particularly with France.
Balancing Security and Sovereignty
Poland is actively seeking alliances, exemplified by President Macron’s visit, recognizing the importance of external security guarantees.
Regardless of who governs, Poland must balance its commitments to NATO and the EU.
Reconciling with Poland’s Success
The government is grappling with reconciling itself with Poland’s economic success, having transitioned from a poorer European nation to one of the wealthiest.
This success challenges traditional narratives and requires a new approach to national identity and purpose.
The Importance of Security Concerns
The author emphasizes that security concerns are paramount in Polish politics, overshadowing other issues, including economic ones.
The ongoing war in Ukraine underscores the need for a unified approach to national security.
Liberalism in Poland
Polish liberalism differs from its Western counterparts, being rooted in the experience of regaining independence.
Prioritizing statehood is essential before engaging in debates about individual freedoms and economic policies.
Prioritizing Education and Trust
The author calls for a significant increase in teacher salaries and a focus on building trust within society to enhance resilience against security threats.
He criticizes the lack of political accountability, exemplified by the case of Belarusian spy Tomasz Szmydt.
Succession and Leadership
Radosław Sikorski is seen as a potential successor to Tusk, though the relationship between the two will be crucial.
The Civic Coalition lacks strong individual personalities compared to PiS.
The Role of Ideas and Ideals
The author laments the lack of compelling ideas in Polish politics, with the focus on managing the state rather than shaping a vision for the future.
Tusk’s leadership is constrained by the need for coalition compromises.
Tusk’s Motivations and the Legacy of PiS
Tusk’s return to Polish politics was driven by concerns about corruption, the erosion of the rule of law, and the abuse of power by the previous government.
The current political landscape reflects a divided society that prefers a balance of power over complete control by either side.
The Enduring Importance of Sovereignty
The author cautions against attempts to alter the constitutional system towards a presidential model, emphasizing the importance of a separation of powers.
Poland’s history demonstrates a consistent inability to act effectively in the face of threats without overcoming internal divisions.
