Recent US and Israeli attacks on Iran aimed to halt its nuclear ambitions have failed to significantly delay its progress, according to experts.
US and Israel Launch Attacks on Iran
The United States and Israel began attacks on Iran on February 28th, reportedly to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Limited Impact on Nuclear Program
Significant disruption to Iran’s nuclear program would require the destruction or removal of its remaining highly enriched uranium reserves, according to Reuters.
Analysts suggest the strikes have only slightly delayed the construction of a nuclear weapon.
Recent Attacks Focused on Conventional Targets
The latest US and Israeli attacks primarily targeted conventional military objectives in Iran, although Israel also struck several important nuclear facilities. US intelligence agencies previously estimated Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium to build a weapon within three to six months.
Following attacks on nuclear complexes in Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan in June 2025, that timeframe was extended to approximately 9-12 months. Despite damaging three Iranian uranium enrichment facilities, the International Atomic Energy Agency could not verify the location of around 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent.
Material Remains Secure Underground
Former US intelligence analyst Eric Brewer believes the lack of change in estimated timelines for Iran building a bomb is unsurprising, as recent US attacks were not aimed at targets linked to Iran’s nuclear program.
“To the best of our knowledge, Iran still possesses all of its nuclear material,” Brewer, now Vice President of the Nuclear Materials Research Program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative think tank, stated. “It is likely located deep underground, where US missiles cannot reach.”
Potential for More Aggressive Operations
US officials have recently considered more dangerous operations to hinder Iran’s nuclear efforts, including potential ground raids to recover enriched uranium believed to be stored in a tunnel complex in Isfahan, Reuters reported.
Iran Denies Nuclear Ambitions
Iran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons, while simultaneously enriching uranium to levels exceeding those for civilian use. US intelligence agencies believe Iran halted work on a nuclear warhead in 2003, though some experts and Israel contend it secretly maintained key elements of the program.
