Russians Are Exhausted, but Ukraine Is Not Winning

Five months into a slow Russian offensive, the war in Ukraine has reached a state of precarious equilibrium, characterized by diminished Russian momentum and limited, local tactical counterattacks by Kyiv.

Even Russians Lack Optimism

June marked the fifth month of minimal Russian progress, with data showing a significant decline in pace compared to last year. While the Ukrainian “Deep State” reports a slight Russian gain of 84 square kilometers, this remains one of the lowest figures in two years. Kyiv suggests that their localized counteroffensives near Velyka Novosilka and Lyman have actually placed Russians at a territorial deficit, though this remains difficult to verify independently.

Polish analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting estimates that Russians were at a net loss in June, with Ukraine reclaiming 41 square kilometers. Conversely, the blogger “Suriyak” calculates a net Russian loss of 49 square kilometers, while the pro-Russian Telegram account “Creamy Caprice” claims a 112 square kilometer gain for Russia—the lowest such figure in two years.

Intense Fluctuations and Frozen Fronts

The front has not stagnated entirely. Since February, Ukraine has shifted from passive defense to active local counterattacks. Russia continues to conduct frequent combat engagements—7,300 reported in June—though their efficacy is hampered by smaller scale attacks and narrower focus. General Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that Russian activity has condensed from 13 operational directions to seven, with only four identified as primary.

Local Russian successes persist, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they have pushed defenders out of at least half of Kostyantynivka. Losing the city would threaten the twin fortresses of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. However, at the current rate of advancement, a full capture of these cities is not a realistic prospect for years.

At the front, the lines are often ill-defined “no-man’s-lands,” several kilometers wide, saturated with drones. Russian flag-planting rituals often signal nothing more than a presence in a contested grey zone rather than secure control of territory.

Exhaustion and Mobilization Rumors

The potential of both sides is more evenly matched this year, thanks to Ukraine’s technological advancements in unmanned systems and improved command coordination. Meanwhile, Russia faces mounting logistics issues and potential manpower shortages, with reports suggesting they are losing more soldiers than they can recruit. This has fueled speculation that the Kremlin may initiate another wave of forced mobilization this autumn.

Despite these developments, Ukraine lacks the strategic force to decisively alter the front. Both nations are deeply exhausted by over four years of war. Future shifts will likely depend on the effectiveness of reciprocal strike campaigns—Ukraine targeting Russian fuel and logistics, and Russia striking assets in the Ukrainian rear.