Earthquake in Latest Poll: Elections Would Bring Surprising Seat Distribution

A new poll by the Nationwide Research Group reveals major shifts on the Polish political scene, with several established parliamentary forces falling below the electoral threshold.

Latest OGB Poll: Civic Coalition in the Lead, PiS in Second Place

The latest poll by the Nationwide Research Group (OGB) indicates significant reshuffling on the Polish political scene. While the Civic Coalition maintains its lead, smaller formations and new groupings are gaining substantial support, and some existing parliamentary forces would fall completely below the electoral threshold.

Civic Coalition would be supported in the elections by 33.53 percent, Law and Justice by 22.34 percent, and Confederation by 15.82 percent, according to the latest OGB poll. A vote for the Confederation of the Polish Crown would be cast by 10.51 percent of respondents, and 5.99 percent for New Left.

Published on Friday, the survey shows that in the parliamentary elections, 33.53 percent of the votes would be received by Civic Coalition, 22.34 percent by Law and Justice, and 15.82 percent by Confederation.

Who Else Will Enter the Sejm? Mateusz Morawiecki’s Grouping Gains

The Sejm would also include the Confederation of the Polish Crown (KPP) with the support of 10.51 percent of respondents, New Left with 5.99 percent of the votes, and Mateusz Morawiecki’s grouping Rozwój Plus, for which 5.49 percent would cast their votes.

Known Parties Below the Electoral Threshold: Clear Drop in Support

Below the electoral threshold would be the Together Party, which would receive 3.64 percent of the votes, the Polish Peasant Party with the support of 1.74 percent of respondents, and Poland 2050 with 0.94 percent.

How Do These Results Translate into Power? Sejm Seat Distribution Known

According to OGB, such election results would translate into 185 seats for KO, 126 for PiS, 79 for Confederation, 49 for KPP, 13 for New Left, and 8 for the Rozwój Plus formation.

The research was conducted using the CATI method between August 5-12 on a representative sample of 1,000 people. (PAP)