Far-Right Surges in New Poll as Coalition Government Faces Potential Majority Loss

A recent United Surveys by IBRiS poll reveals that the combined support for two Konfederacja factions has reached over 25 percent, potentially stripping the current governing coalition of its parliamentary majority.

Poll Results Show Political Shift

Conducted for Wirtualna Polska between July 10-12 among 1,000 respondents, the poll shows Koalicja Obywatelska leading with 28.6 percent, followed by PiS at 23 percent. Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość secured 15.7 percent, while Konfederacja Korony Polskiej reached 10.2 percent. Further down the list, Nowa Lewica garnered 7.5 percent and PSL received 5.2 percent.

Partia Razem, with 4 percent, and Polska 2050, with 0.6 percent, failed to cross the threshold. The percentage of undecided voters dropped from 7.8 percent to 5.2 percent.

Support Fluctuations Among Major Parties

Compared to the June 12-14 survey, both Koalicja Obywatelska and PiS recorded a decline of 1.1 percentage points each. In contrast, support grew for Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość by 3.5 percentage points, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej by 0.6 points, Nowa Lewica by 0.4 points, and PSL by 0.2 points.

Partia Razem saw a slight increase of 0.9 percentage points, whereas Polska 2050 dropped by 0.8 points. The newly formed Unia Centrum party was not included in the study as its launch occurred after the polling period.

Implications for Parliamentary Majority

Calculations by Prof. Jarosław Flis indicate that the 460-seat Sejm would be divided with 158 seats for Koalicja Obywatelska, 125 for PiS, 83 for Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość, 51 for Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, 34 for the Left, and nine for PSL.

Forming a government requires 231 seats. A theoretical coalition between PiS and both Konfederacja parties would command 259 seats, securing a majority. The current governing coalition would hold 201 seats, falling 30 short of the required threshold.

Strategic Positioning of Konfederacja

Krzysztof Bosak, a leader of Konfederacja, stated in an interview that his party will compete against PiS in future elections, rejecting the prospect of a “common victory.” He emphasized that the party intends to run independently as an alternative to the existing political establishment.

While Jarosław Kaczyński has also previously ruled out such a coalition, both parties are focused on maximizing their electoral outcomes, leaving their final strategic decisions uncertain.