Morawiecki’s Political Potential and the Shifting Parliamentary Arithmetic
A new poll indicates that a political party led by Mateusz Morawiecki would secure 6.9 percent of the vote, potentially creating a right-wing parliamentary majority that could displace the current...
A new poll indicates that a political party led by Mateusz Morawiecki would secure 6.9 percent of the vote, potentially creating a right-wing parliamentary majority that could displace the current ruling coalition.
Table Of Content
Poll Findings and Seat Distribution
Research shows that Morawiecki’s party would receive 6.9 percent of the vote, securing 26 seats in the Sejm. The poll places Koalicja Obywatelska first with 29 percent and 176 seats, followed by Law and Justice (PiS) with 18.9 percent and 108 seats.
Other results include: Konfederacja (12 percent, 61 seats), Grzegorz Braun’s Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (10.9 percent, 53 seats), and the Left (8.3 percent, 36 seats). PSL, the Razem party, and Polska 2050 failed to cross the electoral threshold.
A New Right-Wing Majority
If these polling results translated into parliamentary seats, the current governing coalition would lose its majority, holding a combined total of only 212 deputies. The KO and the Left would be unable to maintain power.
Conversely, a right-wing government could be formed. PiS, Konfederacja, Grzegorz Braun’s Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, and Morawiecki’s party would collectively command 248 seats in the Sejm.
Methodology
The United Surveys by IBRiS poll, commissioned by Wirtualna Polska, was conducted on July 16-17 using CATI and CAWI methods on a representative group of 1,000 Polish adults. Seat distribution was calculated using Professor Jarosław Flis’s model from Jagiellonian University.
Internal Conflict within PiS
The PiS leadership recently passed a resolution requiring members involved in political associations to resign from them by July 23. This measure impacts entities such as Mateusz Morawiecki’s “Rozwój Plus” association, with failure to comply resulting in potential expulsion from the party.
Politicians aligned with Morawiecki express a desire to remain in the party while continuing their work within their association. Following a meeting between Morawiecki and Jarosław Kaczyński, PiS spokesperson Rafał Bochenek stated that while the discussion was calm, it did not resolve the fundamental issue regarding the association ban.