Morawiecki’s Rozwój Plus Enters Polls, Clears Sejm Threshold in Event of PiS Split

An Opinia24 survey shows Mateusz Morawiecki’s newly polled Rozwój Plus would enter parliament with 6,2 percent of the vote if a split occurs within PiS.

Current Electoral Standings

Opinia24 asked respondents who they would vote for if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday. The Civic Coalition led the ranking with 31,6 percent support, marking a decrease of 0,3 percentage points.

PiS took second place with 23 percent, an increase of 0,2 percentage points, while Konfederacja placed third with 12,3 percent, up 1,1 percentage points.

Further down the list were the Confederation of the Polish Crown with 9,6 percent and the Left with 6,8 percent. Razem, PSL, and Poland 2050 would remain outside the Sejm, while undecided voters accounted for 3,2 percent.

Split Scenario Impact

The poll also examined voter support under a scenario where PiS fractures. This is not purely hypothetical, as Thursday marks the deadline for an ultimatum regarding party members’ involvement in associations, a ruling that has sparked fresh internal friction within Jarosław Kaczyński’s faction.

In this variant, the Civic Coalition would maintain its lead at 30,9 percent. PiS would drop to 17,7 percent, which is over 5 percentage points lower than running alongside Morawiecki’s group and equal to the drop in the previous poll.

Konfederacja would secure 12,9 percent, and the Confederation of the Polish Crown would reach 9,6 percent. The Left would secure 7,1 percent, and interestingly, Morawiecki’s Rozwój Plus would enter the Sejm with 6,2 percent.

Partia Razem, PSL, and Poland 2050 would stay out of parliament, while undecided respondents would account for 3,1 percent.

Morawiecki’s Political Future

Speculation regarding Morawiecki’s political independence intensified after he established the Rozwój Plus association in April 2026, officially presented as an expert base and a platform for dialogue on the right.

However, in July, the PiS leadership adopted a resolution obliging party members to resign from associations conducting political activities within the party structure. The deadline for each lawmaker to decide is Thursday, July 23.

Morawiecki met with Kaczyński regarding the matter, but the nearly three-hour conversation yielded no concrete outcomes. A PiS politician told “Wyborcza” that there was no breakthrough, though everyone seeks a way out of the crisis.