Poland faces a deepening demographic crisis with falling birth rates despite substantial government spending, prompting debate within the right-wing political landscape.
Demographic Alarm and Political Debate
The Polish right is raising concerns about the demographic situation, questioning why, despite being well-positioned to address the issue of declining birth rates, it struggles to find effective solutions.
A recent conference organized by the Sejm, featuring politicians from the Confederation and Law and Justice, as well as conservative think tank experts, highlighted the urgency of the problem, but also the lack of concrete answers.
The Severity of Poland’s Demographic Situation
Poland is experiencing its most severe demographic crisis in history. The total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime – has fallen to just 1.1 in 2025.
This is lower than Japan’s rate and the third-lowest among 48 OECD countries. The TFR has dropped from 1.4 in 2020 and over 2.1 in 1988, the threshold for population growth. Projections suggest a potential population decline of at least 70% within two generations if the current trend continues.
Consequences of Demographic Decline
A shrinking population will dramatically increase the ratio of older to younger residents, making it increasingly difficult to fund pensions and healthcare, even with tax increases.
Public spending on social benefits, infrastructure, and defense will also suffer due to a shrinking workforce and tax base. Maintaining defense capabilities will become more challenging as the population declines, requiring increased investment in military equipment.
The Effectiveness of the 500+ Program
The Law and Justice (PiS) party, during its eight years in power (2015-2023), implemented the “Family 500+” program (later “800+”), costing approximately 1.5% of Poland’s GDP annually, to address the demographic crisis.
However, the program’s impact on birth rates has been temporary. While birth rates increased from 1.29 in 2015 to 1.45 in 2017, they began to decline again from 2018, returning to pre-500+ levels in 2022 and reaching a historic low in subsequent years.
Shifting Focus from Economics to Culture
Additional PiS initiatives, such as “Mama 4+”, tax breaks for families with four or more children, and the “Maluch+” childcare subsidy, also failed to reverse the trend. The right is increasingly attributing the low birth rate to cultural factors rather than economic ones.
Education and Birth Rates: Challenging the Narrative
Some on the right, like Piotr Głowacki, suggest a correlation between higher education levels and lower birth rates, arguing that studying delays family formation. This narrative resonates with the right-wing electorate.
However, data shows a positive correlation between education and the number of children women have. Women with a master’s degree or higher have, on average, more children than those without a high school diploma. Poland’s percentage of highly educated citizens is below the OECD average.
Culture vs. Finances: A False Dichotomy
The focus on education distracts from the need for effective demographic policies. Recent proposals from PiS, like cultural vouchers and car subsidies, have proven ineffective. The Confederation emphasizes “values” but lacks concrete proposals.
Religion and Demography: A Misplaced Emphasis
The right often attributes the decline in birth rates to the loss of religious values. While religiosity is correlated with higher birth rates, Poland remains a relatively religious country, yet has one of the lowest TFRs in Europe.
Secularization alone does not explain Poland’s demographic situation. The issue is likely more complex than a simple decline in religious observance.
The Need for Realistic Solutions
The right’s tendency to prioritize ideological agendas over evidence-based solutions risks undermining public trust and hindering progress on the demographic crisis. A pragmatic approach is needed to avoid turning demographic concerns into a political pretext.
