The U.S. Institute of War Studies warned that Russian and Belarusian special services could sabotage Polish critical infrastructure, including drone incursions.
Reported Threats
The U.S. Institute of War Studies has warned that Russian and Belarusian special services could target Poland’s critical infrastructure and breach Ukrainian airspace with drones. The report alleges that Russia will blame Ukraine for attacks, similar to the September drone incident, and that these actions may be accompanied by a disinformation campaign designed to confuse citizens. Russian‑led hybrid war tactics rely heavily on such sabotage to manipulate the truth of events.
Potential Intensification of Sabotage
Expert Dr. Michał Piekarski says the current sabotage incidents in Poland are small‑scale operations carried out by inexperienced Telegram agents who perform simple acts such as kidnapping or arson. He warns that more sophisticated actions using drones are expected, and that Russia may employ specially trained operatives or paid contractors beyond Russian nationals to carry out coordinated attacks.
Expert Analysis of Possible Attacks
According to Piekarski, future sabotage could involve blowing up power‑pole networks around major urban areas, potentially shedding 50‑100% of electricity supply, or planting explosives on the five main rail lines leading to Warsaw, which would cause a huge transport paralysis. Such incidents would be the most serious phenomena seen so far and may just be the first taste of a broader campaign.
War’s Duration and European Support
Piekarski argues that the longer the Ukraine war drags on, the less Russia can claim a tactical victory, and the more it will target Ukrainian rear areas. Poland, as part of Europe’s logistics grid, is effectively a bridge for Ukraine’s supplies, and without EU support—armaments, equipment, supplies—Ukraine risks defeat at the hands of Russian forces.
Need for Civil Vigilance and Infrastructure Protection
The expert stresses that civil vigilance is crucial; Germany has launched a one‑use agent campaign warning against suspicious job offers. Poland must implement a unified critical infrastructure protection system, as mandated by the new CER directive, and ensure accountable workforce in national security agencies. Any attempt to test security systems, such as unauthorized drone flights, should raise concern.
Trust Issues in Public Security
Piekarski cites declining trust in the police, citing incidents such as the 2016 Wrocław fatality from inadequate search procedures, and the 2018 well‑known case where unarmed officers were prosecuted and images circulated online. Low trust affects public willingness to report suspicious activity, undermining national security efforts. He questions how police would confront sabotage groups in such a climate.
