Poland’s PiS party is grappling with internal fractures as Mateusz Morawiecki and Sławomir Mentzen offer contrasting visions, while the fallout from Viktor Orbán’s decline looms.
PiS at a Crossroads?
Despite repeated predictions of its demise, PiS has consistently rebounded from setbacks, bolstered by Jarosław Kaczyński’s perceived strategic foresight. However, the party now faces a potential split.
The current situation echoes 2012, when the then-ruling Platforma Obywatelska was beset by scandals while PiS struggled to capitalize, ultimately leading to Zbigniew Ziobro’s secession and a subsequent shift in power.
Morawiecki’s Potential Path
A new party led by Morawiecki is not imminent, but he could attempt to consolidate control within PiS, challenging the “maślarze” faction and imposing his vision. The decline of Viktor Orbán and a potential collapse of Donald Trump could reinforce Morawiecki’s ideological stance.
Morawiecki possesses a brand, a message targeting supporters of the Central Communication Port (CPK) project, and access to funding and structures, giving him greater potential than Kaczyński currently enjoys.
The “Maślarze” and “Harcerze” Divide
The division within PiS stems from a rift in 2020 between modernizers and radicals, described as “revolutionary reactionaries.”
This split was triggered by the Constitutional Tribunal’s ruling on abortion, which empowered the radical faction. Previously, PiS had managed to contain radicals by offering them symbolic concessions while allowing pragmatic policies to proceed.
PiS’s Loss of Identity
PiS’s past successes relied on strict adherence to a “no further right” principle, integrating radicals within its coalition. However, this strategy became unsustainable as significant reforms were completed, leaving only difficult, long-term projects.
Modernizers around Morawiecki were willing to undertake these challenging tasks, but lacked the popular support and political base enjoyed by the radical faction, who leveraged social media to amplify their voice.
The Erosion of Anti-Communist Identity
Historically, PiS’s core identity revolved around fighting the remnants of the communist regime. However, this narrative has lost its potency, with Zbigniew Ziobro ceasing to use the term “post-communism” as early as 2019.
The Smoleńsk tragedy served as a second pillar of PiS’s identity, tapping into a sense of historical grievance and romanticism. This, combined with social policies aimed at addressing the injustices of the transformation, initially proved successful.
The Rise of New Aspirations
During its eight years in power, PiS oversaw a period of general prosperity, diminishing the sense of grievance that fueled its earlier support. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine disrupted this stability, but did not significantly impoverish the population.
This shift has created space for new political forces, such as Grzegorz Braun, who appeal to frustration, and Sławomir Mentzen, who offer a vision of easy prosperity. Morawiecki attempts to address these aspirations with a message of hard work and investment.
The Perils of Radicalization
PiS’s flirtation with the alt-right international has blurred its image, particularly in light of Viktor Orbán’s ties to Russia. This complicates its ability to criticize figures like Roman Giertych, who have been linked to Russian interests.
Radicalization also jeopardizes PiS’s potential for leadership in Central and Eastern Europe, where it was previously admired for its modernization efforts. Kaczyński’s focus on confrontation risks undermining this progress.
