A CBOS poll released Friday shows the Civic Coalition leading with 32% support, marking its best result in a year, while Law and Justice suffers a significant drop.
Civic Coalition Reaches One-Year High
The latest CBOS poll, conducted between April 13th and 15th, indicates that 75.6% of eligible voters would participate in parliamentary elections held this Sunday.
The Civic Coalition currently holds 32% of the vote, a 2.8 percentage point increase from March and the best result for Donald Tusk’s party since April 2023.
Law and Justice Sees Lowest Support Yet
Law and Justice (PiS) received 18.2% support, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the last poll. This ties its worst-ever result since the February parliamentary elections.
Other Parties and Potential Parliamentary Representation
Konfederacja and Konfederacja Korony Polski (Braun’s party) secured 13% and 8.7% respectively, with the latter experiencing a 2.3 percentage point decline since March.
The New Left would also enter parliament with 5.8% support, while Razem stands just below the electoral threshold at 4.9%. The Polish People’s Party (PSL) and Polska 2050 received 3% and 0.7% respectively. 10.9% of respondents were undecided.
Internal Dynamics Within PiS
Mateusz Morawiecki has established the “Rozwój Plus” association, attracting MPs, and continues to assert his commitment to PiS’s victory, focusing on a centrist approach.
Imputation of Undecided Voters’ Preferences
CBOS imputed data to extrapolate the voting preferences of those who hesitated or refused to answer, slightly narrowing the gap between the Civic Coalition and Law and Justice.
After imputation, the Civic Coalition would receive 34.7% of the vote, while Law and Justice would garner 22.8%. Both Konfederacja factions would also see increases, reaching 14.5% and 10.2% respectively.
Potential Coalitions and Electoral Thresholds
The poll suggests a potential right-wing coalition (PiS plus both Konfederacja factions) could achieve 39.9% of the vote, exceeding the combined total of the current ruling coalition (Civic Coalition and New Left) at 37.8%.
Imputation suggests both left-wing groups could surpass the electoral threshold, with the New Left at 6.7% and Razem at 5.8%. The PSL would receive 3.7% and Polska 2050 would receive 1.5%.
