GUS Releases New Inflation Data: What It Means for Household Spending

Consumer inflation in Poland reached 3 percent year-on-year in July 2026, driven by higher costs for services and fuel, according to final data released by Statistics Poland.

July Inflation Confirms Previous Estimates

Consumer inflation in Poland stood at 3 percent year-on-year in July 2026, as reported by Statistics Poland (GUS). Compared to June, prices of consumer goods and services increased by 0.8 percent. These figures confirm the earlier flash estimate released by GUS.

Consumer goods and services prices in July 2026 were 3 percent higher than in the same month of the previous year. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.8 percent compared to June, according to data published by GUS on August 13. The final reading of the main CPI indicator aligns with the earlier flash estimate.

Services Continue to Outpace Goods in Price Growth

The general inflation rate does not mean a uniform pace of price changes across all components of the consumer basket. Services grew significantly faster than goods, with service prices rising by 5.5 percent year-on-year in July, while goods averaged a 2 percent increase. Compared to June, service prices increased by 1.4 percent and goods by 0.6 percent.

This persistent gap means that annual service price dynamics were 3.5 percentage points higher than goods price dynamics. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) noted in its July Inflation Report that service price dynamics remained relatively high throughout the first half of 2026.

Fuel Costs Surge While Food Prices Decline

The GUS flash estimate highlighted stark differences across major expenditure categories. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were 0.4 percent lower in July than the previous year and 0.8 percent lower than in June.

Conversely, electricity, gas, and other housing-related fuels saw a 4 percent increase annually and a 0.1 percent rise monthly. Private transport fuel and lubricants experienced the sharpest jump, surging 15.8 percent year-on-year and 13.9 percent month-on-month.

CPI Inflation Remains Within NBP Target Band

July brought an acceleration in annual inflation compared to June, when the rate stood at 2.5 percent, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase. Despite this rise, inflation remains within the NBP’s permissible deviation band of 1.5 to 3.5 percent around the 2.5 percent target.

Data for the first half of 2026 shows that average price dynamics remain significantly lower than during the previous high-inflation period. GUS reported that consumer goods and services prices rose by 2.7 percent in H1 2026 compared to H1 2025.

NBP Inflation Forecast Aligns With July Readings

The latest NBP projection assumes an average annual CPI inflation rate of 2.9 percent for 2026, gradually easing to 2.7 percent in 2027 and 2.2 percent in 2028. The central bank estimates a 50 percent probability that average annual inflation in 2026 will range between 2.4 and 3.3 percent.

July’s 3 percent reading falls within both the NBP target deviation band and the central bank’s projected range. However, the uneven structure of price growth—particularly high service inflation—continues to impact household budgets depending on individual spending patterns.