A new report indicates a growing disconnect between employee expectations for pay raises and employer plans for cost-cutting measures, potentially impacting the 2026 labor market.
2026 Labor Market: Balancing Wage Pressure and Corporate Caution
The 2026 labor market is becoming increasingly complex, according to the latest Barometer from Gi Group Holding. While employees continue to expect wage increases, businesses are approaching financial decisions with greater caution than in previous years.
Wage Gap: Why Companies Are Hesitant to Raise Pay in 2026
Over half of employees (53.4%) anticipate pay increases in the coming months, yet only 29% of companies plan to raise wages in the next quarter. This reveals a significant gap between employee expectations and employer capabilities.
Drivers of Wage Growth Remain Consistent
The main factors driving wage increases in Poland remain unchanged: inflationary pressure, minimum wage hikes, and the need to retain and reward employees. However, organizations are increasingly limiting themselves to small adjustments rather than broad-based raises, making wage policies more cautious and tied to financial performance.
End of the Employee Market? Increasing Firms Announce Layoffs
The Gi Group Holding report indicates a stabilization trend in employment. Only 13.7% of companies plan to increase headcount, down from 16.7% the previous year. Simultaneously, 9.8% of businesses foresee job cuts, the highest level of such declarations in years.
Recruitment Focus Shifts to Operational Roles
Recruitment efforts, when they occur, are primarily focused on filling operational positions and roles at the middle and lower levels to ensure business continuity, rather than investing in dynamic team expansion.
Burnout Epidemic: Work Overload Threatens Polish Productivity
The Barometer highlights a concerning trend: increasing demands on employees are impacting their well-being. The study shows that 42% of employees report feeling overwhelmed with their workload, a problem also recognized by employers, with 22.5% citing burnout and excessive workload as a major barrier to productivity.
AI in the Workplace: Opportunity or Job Threat?
New technologies are increasingly influencing work patterns. 42% of employers acknowledge that automation and AI tools have accelerated processes, while 33% point to their role in reducing operational costs. 27% of organizations note that technological implementations have altered job structures or responsibilities.
Employee Perspective on AI: Facilitation and Concerns
From an employee perspective, 52% believe technology simplifies daily tasks. 32% are not concerned about its development, but 18% perceive a risk of job loss. While 28% use AI at work, access to knowledge remains limited, with 31% finding education in this area insufficient and 23% lacking opportunities to acquire such skills in the workplace.
2026 Labor Market Forecast: A Balance Between Pay and Efficiency
Data indicates the labor market in 2026 is entering a phase of balancing interests. While wage pressure persists, corporate caution is growing. Key factors will include not only wages but also work organization, investment in skills, and the effective use of technology.
