Jarosław Kaczyński’s PiS faces internal divisions and external pressure as it weighs potential coalitions with both Grzegorz Braun and Władysław Kosiniak Kamysz.
Meeting Sparks Coalition Speculation
During a notable dinner at Adam Bielan’s home in early July 2025, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński reportedly warned former Sejm Marshal Szymon Hołownia and Michał Kamiński against a scenario where the future government would be formed not only with Konfederacja but also with the group around Grzegorz Braun.
At the same meeting, a proposal was allegedly made for Władysław Kosiniak Kamysz of PSL to become the coalition prime minister of PiS and the Third Way.
US Influence on Polish Politics
According to one source, the background for this proposal was a signal from the United States, with Americans reportedly pressuring for Kosiniak to take the premiership, fearing radical parties would govern in Europe and not wanting a cabinet whose ministers openly question American interests, partially aligned with Israeli interests.
Donald Trump is said to fear far-right parties will rule in this part of Europe, particularly concerned about Elon Musk’s support for Germany’s right-wing AfD.
Internal PiS Conflicts Intensify
The article mentions this isn’t the first attempt to draw PSL leader to PiS, with arguments about relations with America persisting. Meanwhile, PiS is reportedly engaged in frantic discussions about regaining voters who defected to Grzegorz Braun after the 2025 presidential campaign.
This has intensified the conflict between the so-called “maślarzy” faction and Mateusz Morawiecki’s group, with the former advocating a distinct rightward shift to win back Braun’s voters.
Changing Polling Landscape
According to the latest IBRiS poll for “Rzeczpospolita,” Grzegorz Braun’s party is drawing support from both PiS and Konfederacja led by Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak, with Konfederation dropping from 16.1% to 12.6%.
Korona Polska Grzegorza Brauna received support from 9% of respondents in January, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from November 2025. Meanwhile, PiS currently stands at 23.3%, down 3.8 percentage points.
Future Coalition Uncertainties
The internal conflicts in PiS and PSL’s indifference to the temptation of the premiership position suggest the party may face growing difficulties in stopping voter defection, potentially bringing it closer to Grzegorz Braun as a necessary coalition partner.
The circle appears to be closing, with the question shifting from whether PiS will talk to Braun to what Washington would say about such a scenario.
