A new poll indicates a party led by Mateusz Morawiecki could secure 6% of the vote, largely at the expense of Law and Justice (PiS).
Morawiecki’s Party Attracts 6% in Initial Polling
According to a CBOS study published Friday, 6% of potential voters would support a party led by Mateusz Morawiecki if parliamentary elections were held now.
The potential electorate breakdown reveals that 60% are current PiS voters, 27% are Konfederacja supporters, 9% are undecided, 2% support Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, and 2% are Koalicja Obywatelska voters.
PiS Faces the Biggest Losses
CBOS indicates that PiS would suffer the most from the creation of Morawiecki’s party, with 17% of its current electorate potentially shifting their support to the former prime minister.
Konfederacja’s electorate would shrink by 11%, while Konfederacja Korony Polskiej would see a minimal loss of 2%.
Limited Appeal to Undecided Voters
The emergence of Morawiecki’s party would only slightly influence the decision-making process of undecided voters, with only 4% of this group indicating they would vote for it.
Minimal Impact on Other Parties
For supporters of other political groups, Morawiecki’s party represents “practically no alternative.” Only 4 out of 1000 current Koalicja Obywatelska voters expressed interest in switching their support.
Supporters of other parties within the ruling coalition and the opposition party Razem also showed no such inclination.
Survey Methodology and Background
The survey was conducted between April 20-22, 2026, using a combination of CATI (80%) and CAWI (20%) methods, with a sample size of 1000 adult Polish residents.
Morawiecki’s Initiative and PiS Response
In mid-April, Morawiecki announced the establishment of Stowarzyszenie Rozwój Plus, which has already attracted dozens of PiS parliamentarians.
PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński stated last week that individuals involved with Morawiecki’s association would not be included on PiS electoral lists, citing the party’s statutes prohibiting membership in other political organizations.
Compromise Reached Between Kaczyński and Morawiecki
A seven-hour meeting took place Monday evening between Kaczyński, Morawiecki, and PiS MEP Adam Bielan, resulting in a joint statement.
Kaczyński emphasized that the agreement allows the association’s activities to proceed “as if within the party.”
Establishment of an Expert Council
During a meeting of the PiS Political Committee, the idea of establishing an Expert Council, including members of the association, was proposed.
Kaczyński clarified that this does not mean the association will be dissolved and announced further work on resolving the issue of associations within the party.
PiS to Pursue Two Distinct Approaches
Kaczyński announced that the party will now operate with “two lungs,” aiming to appeal to Konfederacja and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej voters, as well as those seeking a more “radical” electorate, with Przemysław Czarnk as a key figure.
The “second lung” will focus on attracting individuals who prioritize an effective and stable government.
