Military expert assesses that while the US did not achieve a rapid collapse of Iran, the conflict remains far from concluded.
Military Reality
The US failed to realize its most optimistic scenario of Iran collapsing swiftly with minimal attack costs. Official forecasts spoke of a 4-6 week operation. Regardless, President Trump acknowledged that military leaders must be prepared for a significantly longer conflict, as such wars are not won in days.
Iran’s Regime
While Iran’s leadership suffered major blows initially, it has stabilized and weathered the crisis. Power transitions, including the Supreme Leader’s position, remain efficient. There have been no mass protests, and the regime may currently benefit from a “rally around the flag” effect, potentially fueled by societal fear of an uncertain future. The regime has “caught its breath,” but the duration and determination of both sides to escalate remain critical.
Regional Spread
The conflict is expanding regionally, primarily targeting Gulf states and Lebanon. Gulf states and Iran avoid direct confrontation, seeking to outlast the situation. Turkey and Azerbaijan similarly show restraint. Lebanon faces a full-scale Israeli operation against Hezbollah, with approximately 700 killed and 800,000 internally displaced in recent days, highlighting the conflict’s regional severity.
US Objectives
US goals appear gradual: destroying Iran’s ballistic and nuclear capabilities to prevent threats to American and Israeli interests via missile strikes, nuclear development, or support for proxies like Hezbollah. President Trump seeks a political victory, marked by an Iranian capitulation and the secure reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating US regional dominance.
Iran’s Goals
Iran aims for regime survival, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. It seeks to rebuild its deterrence, convince adversaries it cannot be pressured into change, and signal that the costs of confrontation (military or economic) are prohibitively high. A long-term goal, contingent on survival, is renewing deterrence and proving normalization is the only alternative.
The Broader Picture
While the US has not achieved a quick victory, it is premature to declare defeat. Americans retain the initiative, the Iranian regime weakens, but the conflict is far from over. Key to the outcome are internal situations in both the US and Iran. Israel, an equal partner in the conflict initiated largely by it, is an indispensable player for a lasting resolution.
